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30 July, 2017

Trump and his advisers

Trump has a big brain and knows all the big words, such as 'huge'. He continues to surround himself with people who make him feel clever and presidential.

His ability to critically think is zero. His ability to choose and listen to advisers is zero.

The US is experiencing an accelerating decrease in their standards of living. However, they are told things are worse in the EU. Well Greece is struggling but so is Detroit.

Russia is the new bad guy, somehow interfering in a US election to help either Trump or Hillary win, depending upon which one of these people you dislike the most.

North Korea is another bad guy. A nation of mostly starving people and one fat man. Not a credible distraction but we are supposed to fear them.

China is also an enemy. They aren't helping the US enough with their bizarre and contradictory foreign policies.

Anyway, let me comment on one small detail. Trump is annoyed with China for running a huge trade imbalance. Supplying America with inexpensive real things in exchange for US dollars. The threat being that the US can zero out Chinas vast holding of dollars and US treasuries. Let me paint you a picture.

Trump is effectively encouraging China to diversify away from holding dollars. Other countries can also see this threat of zeroing out their own dollar holdings, should they disagree with one of Trumps increasingly bizarre foreign policy ideas. Thus the world is beginning to feel increasingly nervous about using US dollars as a reserve currency.

Oh dear. This lack of confidence in the value of the worlds reserve currency will further increase the accelerating decline of Americans standard of living.

To simplify, Detroit was not an outlier, it was the first.

For the next decade, America will struggle more and more as the world moves away from the dollar as a reserve currency. The balance of trade deficit will start to diminish.

At this point, the US government will become very dangerous. It will zero out its perceived enemies treasury accounts. It will threaten to use tactical nuclear options. It will further brutalise the American people.

Amongst all this aggression, there is hope. The American people will do the right thing and neutralise their own government. Hopefully, the militarised police and US military will not slaughter too many Americans on US soil.

America will be great again and Trump will play a key role in achieving this. Just not in the way he imagines.

America is about to shape the future of all humanity. I fully expect a great civilisation to arise from the death of our society.

At this point, I could provide help and advice on how to weather this brutal storm. Or try to make some currency from reducing your fear. How about both?

I jest but I do strongly recommend reading my three books, slowly and carefully. They are designed to help you to open your mind to new ideas and to critically think.

For balance, Obama walked the same path that Trump is bumbling down. Clinton would have walked the same path too. It is inevitable. At least Obama did it with style!

Good luck to America in embracing humanity, rather than destroying it. I hope the world can survive however many attempts it takes you to do the right thing. I also hope that the US govt slaughters only a tiny amount of US citizens in this difficult process.

The costs of our society can be measured in the millions of lives it slaughters and will slaughter to sustain itself at the expense of all the humanity of all the survivors.

If you feel this post was negative. Read my books.
If you want to know why we cannot carry on as we are. Read my books.
If you believe mankind is advanced. Read my books.

However, you do have free will. You could choose not to read my books. Then you will never actually know what free will is. All you will know is the illusion of free will.

Read or do not read.  You take care.

21 July, 2017

Monthly Musing

Well readers, that is all I have got. I can write more posts, demonstrating how to view on going events through the lens of understanding as portrayed in this blog, so I will probably do that.

I have spent my entire life (47 years) attempting to understand why the world I live in is not the same as everybody else's. Which is another way of saying I was born differently to mostly everyone. As you may imagine, I have massively abused this difference. It has also caused me incredible mental stress. Thus, in the mainstream media's eyes and mostly everybody's eyes my background is varied and certainly not normal. My credibility is zero. My Doctor genuinely believes I am mentally ill. I feel fine. He thinks I am delusional. I critically think and I simply understand that our core beliefs are incompatible. Notice the use of language, belief and feel. Critical Thought is just a stepping stone to enlightenment. It is not enlightenment of itself. Ultimately, all we have is our feelings and beliefs. Let us allow understanding, gained through critical thought, to add depth to our feelings and strengthen our beliefs against those who would seek control over us.

At thirty, I started a degree level course. A very general Engineering course. I see it as a systems analyst and design Engineering course but I do see things differently to mostly everyone. As you well know, this blog isn't (currently) full of standard main stream ideas. At 34, I completed the course, David Watkinson B.Eng(Hons)

The intellectual weaklings and those most fearful of change will consider me a spark. Perhaps a bright spark but dangerous near gasoline / petroleum spirit / petrol. Perhaps they are right.

I see myself as a catalyst. I don't take part in the reaction and I don't start the reaction. All I do is speed up the reaction.

Mankind is at a junction, it always is. One path leads to World War and the other doesn't. On a lovely day, with a full stomach and a day full of options, very few of us would think destroying the planet was the best option.

I am just a catalyst.

I must point out that the point of life is not to understand it but to enjoy it. With a little critical thought, compassion and understanding we can all help guide Earth towards a garden of Eden rather than destroy it.

I hope these monthly musings are easier to digest than last year's force feeding of 'new' concepts.

Changing core beliefs is perhaps best done gently! (Time permitting.)

Whether these words are understood today or multiples of eighty years from today makes no difference to my soul. My body and mind would prefer the former.

Thanks for attempting to understand my particular point of view. I truly hope it helps you to bring the world into focus and make whatever adjustments you see as necessary to your own life.

Ideas should be shared freely. (Mentoring and further guidance, that should be valued and an exchange of value should at least be genuinely offered.)

I wrote this on the last day of August 2016. Events will be heading down the path I have described, both towards Eden and towards World War. This will always be the case.

To understand the world we just need to understand human nature, in other words, to believe in ourselves.

16 June, 2017

Monthly Musing

In the coming dawn of civilisation, what could we use for money?

We can still use what we use now. Although we ought to consider them as vouchers rather than cash and tokens rather than coins.

So no actual physical difference, just a change in our collective attitude.

The real difference would be in how this simple change would impact upon our lives. No longer would a busy and much needed hospital be shut down due to a lack of vouchers. Just print some more, we would exclaim.

We would all still go to work, if we wanted too. If we could find nothing paid we liked we could do something unpaid. Vouchers, or their electronic counterparts, could easily be added to everyone's bank/social account each week. It isn't money, so what would be the problem?

I know of at least one critical thinker who may have just exploded in intellectual rage. Or may be not.

Inflation would be high, necessarily high. The over inflated asset prices would deflate slowly or even briskly but hopefully slow enough for people to cope psychologically to the new voucher system.

The best part of a voucher system, in my opinion, would be that it would generate debate on how best to allocate resources.

Pensions would now be a concern, a real concern. Individuals would have to think. Personal responsibility will be a solid foundation of this civilised society.

Gold and silver would not become money either. Someone with vouchers surplus to their needs may well purchase gold or silver as a store of wealth. However, should some people see gold and silver as money, then it could easily perform as money. Money is only an jdea, if you think something is money, then it is.

The current voucher system we currently use has a fatal flaw. An unavoidable deflationary collapse is designed in. If the banks and government delay this collapse for too long we get hyperinflation. Either way, numerically speaking, zeroes out your pension.

Now, here is the really interesting part of my little journey into the world of 'what if'. I don't actually have to persuade anybody of anything. I can view coins as tokens and cash as vouchers. I don't have to rely on a government pension. It is however, very annoying living in such a barbaric society when things could be so much more humane. You could say two percent of the population are spoiling it for everybody. Actually, the truth is 98% of people not bothering to critically think is a far bigger issue. Allowing the government to think for us won't end well. It will end. It will end slowly, as it has since 2007, 1998, 1971 or perhaps 1913 but then end abruptly, perhaps 2020, 2025 or 2030?

Timing when hyperinflation will occur is not possible as hyperinflation only occurs when the public lose their confidence in their own currency system. How can anyone predict that?

Bear in mind, the system came close to collapse one day in 2007. An abrupt collapse. Here the financiers risked hyperinflation and won. Each round of QE is another gamble. As is each change or not in interest rates. As is each bond issuance by any government.

The risk increases every day. The perception of risk by the public appears to be unchanging. That can change in a heart beat.

I choose an orderly change into a voucher system with the government self liquidating due to issuing vouchers freely to all rather than taxing people and stealing, unnoticed, from their pension accounts.

Will this gigantic system of control we call government self terminate?

Mankind faces a test. Will we mature and take a step closer to our potential or take yet another step backwards?

If we believe that governments will not voluntarily give up control then we must expect them to increase it as the financial system continues its deflationary collapse.

However, when sufficient numbers of people understand this blog and thus the world, I won't need to inform you of how force government into liquidation. They will liquidate it themselves. I am sure the surviving core of government will say that lessons have been learned. They won't have. They will just be waiting patiently for us to stop thinking critically, again!


19 May, 2017

Monthly Musing

Assuming your core belief in gigantic government paid for with counterfeit bank currency using wealth stolen from your retirement account is faltering, what should you be doing?

Whatever you like, provided that behave as a reasonable human being. There is no need to riot or even write a stiff letter to the BBC. There is no need to be upset or to even have an emotional response. If you are upset, that's fine. Have a little weep if it helps.

Now that you understand the world, you need just practice being a civilised human being for when the dawn of an actual civilisation comes.

You will understand that banks only have an illusion of wealth.
You will understand that government only has an illusion of power.
The promise of a pension, although genuinely given, is just wishful thinking.

Relying on any of the above, knowing what you now know, just isn't possible.

Now that you have disposed of a false core belief you can choose to replace it with something that is actually beneficial to mankind. You may choose to believe in yourself, in developing a new skill, to teaching a skill, to raise a civilised human child, to build a house, to wire a plug, to be happy. The choice is yours and the possibilities are infinite.

The only thing that has actually changed is you. If everyone understood this blog over this weekend, then Monday morning could follow on the same as last Monday morning. Obviously, there would be a great many changes on Monday. Mainly politicians apologising and starting to dismantle vast swathes of utterly unproductive and unhelpful government departments. Bankers, financiers and billionaires would realise their 'wealth' was counterfeit and questions would be asked of the public, rather than enforcing synthetic financial rules that are based only on fraud.

Not exactly cloud cuckoo land is it? Seems very reasonable and civilised to me. Rather than this perverse sick joke of a society I was born into, as were we all. Is it not worth a little effort understanding this blog and explaining it, however you see fit, to the rest of humanity?

May 19th 2017, pacific time. My book will be available for free download

Mindfulness of Self by David Watkinson
Available on Amazon


21 April, 2017

Monthly Musing

Let us take yet another look at pensions. Most pension funds are forced by our governments to buy low risk assets, which is government debt.

I hope some of you have just started panicking. If not let us use the lens I gave you last month.

The government allows banks to counterfeit currency with the unspoken / unwritten agreement that the banks never refuse a government request for a loan or ever demand repayment of principal

Let me break this down for you. When a government needs more money, the bank counterfeits whatever amount of currency is required. The bank then unloads this unrepayable debt / bad loan into your pension fund.

Currently our pensions funds are saturated with this government debt so the central banks cannot unload it. Central Bankers then announce some QE (quantitative easing) to cover up the fact that our pension providers are unable to buy any more government debt, so the central bank is stuck with it.

More of you should be panicking now. Have you figured out the double con?

Ultimately, more or less, every penny a boomer believes is in his pension fund has already been spent by the government. The stuff many of us call money is actually just counterfeit currency. Thus the actual value of a boomers pension fund is zero. It is denominated in a counterfeit currency. BOOM.

Now, many of you have core beliefs that will prevent you from understanding this. Despite the fact that I have presented you with truth, you will struggle to recognise what truth actually is. You are not acquainted with truth, hence it looks strange.

Still not panicking? I hope that is because you are critically thinking.

If, as I suggest, dollars, pounds, euros, yen, yuen and the like are counterfeit, what isn't? Those of you able to grasp how I think will know. Gold and silver. Physical gold and physical silver. Now these metals aren't exactly money either. However, they are the closest thing to money on this planet.

I am not doing myself any favours telling you this. I am not retired, so I am accumulating / storing wealth for my retirement. Exchanging my surplus counterfeit currency for real money is far easier when you lot aren't!

Anyway, I'd rather be right than rich. I'd rather live in an actual civilised society than this one.

I hope you are enjoying these monthly musings. I hope they prove to be of value to you and yours.

Earlier, I mentioned that QE is required when more currency flows out of our pension funds than flows in. This prevents the value of government debt crashing and destroying the numerical value of your pension. It also prevents interest rates from rising, as the value of government debt is 100% negatively correlated to interest rates / yield on government debt. If that sort of mathematics is beyond you, sorry. Blame your government. Blaming yourself is a little harsh but ultimately you and only you are responsible for you. In an actual civilised society you would not need me explaining this stuff to you. You would have been taught how to critically think rather than simply obey authority.

Again, we are back to your core beliefs. Challenging those is incredibly challenging. Keep at it, you are fully capable of being a productive member of a civilised world that everyone can enjoy.

You take care and question everything, always.

My book on mindfulness is available for free on 21 April 2017, pacific time


https://www.amazon.co.uk/Mindfulness-Self-Trilogy-Book-ebook/dp/B06VXG8F3T/ref=sr_1_2?s=digital-text&ie=UTF8&qid=1487491626&sr=1-2&keywords=Mindfulness+of+self

If the above link does not work then you may have to expend a little effort. Log in to amazon, go to the kindle store and search for David Watkinson.


https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B06VXG8F3T https://www.amazon.com/dp/B06VXG8F3T


17 March, 2017

Monthly Musing

Last month I gave an example of a narrative where power was grossly exaggerated. The two nuclear bombs were laughably weak and the narrative that they ended the war is a core belief of our society.

Now, an example of something completely under played. Trivialized, when it really should be taken very seriously.

Back to Japan and nuclear power. In my day, back in the eighties there was a big budget horror film about an out of control nuclear reactor heading towards the centre of the earth. In Japan there are several.

I doubt your core beliefs are being impacted by this news. Two similar stories, one where both Japan and the U.S. exaggerated the destructive strength of nuclear power. Another story where both U.S. and Japanese governments trivialize the destructive strength of nuclear power. The common theme is that governments are powerful and in control. Which is delusional but does back up last month's musing of governments lying to us about the really big stuff.

So, who is going to win the next big govt election? I don't care. (Clinton, probably.)
It is like asking your victim if they prefer apples to pears before strangling them.

A tiny accountable government is what you get in a civilised society. Humans are nearly all, civilised. Thus something is clearly wrong. If you feel that mankind is barely civilised and needs a large govt to control it then you are wrong. There are not enough police or soldiers to control such an uncivilized population.

Thus, we live in a fairly civilised society despite having a large government rather than because of it.

You should be concerned, very concerned. The government is costing us far more than we realise. World war two was started by two Governments. Despite the fact that the first government got the permission of the second government before it even invaded Poland. How dumb are we to believe the narratives our governments drown us in?

I hope you are investigating some or may be all of the claims I am making rather than me catalogue them for you and then you decide what you feel about my credibility? This blog is attempting to encourage Critical Thought, not ask about your feelings about the evil Nazis.

So has a society ever existed for centuries without government? Yes.
Living in a town not spread about in small farms? Yes.

Without monkey brained thinking interference? Yes.

Why don't we?

The monkey brained people resort to violence far far sooner than a normal civilised human being.

Janet Yellen controls her own security force despite her belief of how civilised, wise and intelligent she may feel that she is.

You may ask what am I, the author of this blog?

Well a civilised human being is a beautiful thing. I am practising being one of them.

The monkey brained human treats a civilised human being as cattle.

I, quite obviously, am whatever it is that attempts to prevent the monkey brains from controlling society and who prevent it becoming an actual civilisation. You are welcome.

We all have an element of monkey brain within us. Our modern, civilised society is almost entirely based on continually stimulating that portion of our brain. Recent examples include the UK brexit farce and the current U.S. debate about who is the most presidential, Clinton or Trump. Which is also farcical. Which one is the most deluded would be a far better question.

We all know all of this. Yet the comedy continues. Greek society is being gutted to delay the collapse of a couple of large, to big to fail, German banks. Yet we carry on, part of the problem, without ever imagining something actually civilised.

Too big to fail, that is a fascinating concept. For decades banks have lent governments unlimited funds. Governments now tell us that these banks can never fail without destroying society. Well, that point of view is the narrative the government's of the world insist is true. Unfortunately, it is only true if the underlying assumptions, which are not stated, are true.

My truth is different. Mankind cannot mature, an actual civilised civilisation can never develop unless or until banks collapse and take our governments with them.

Governments believe that government is civilisation. That is the main underlying assumption. Large government believe in the continuation of Deutsche bank more than they believe in the dignity of the Greek people. That is not civilised.

The government control is illusory. As is the wealth of the banks. There is a silver bullet that cuts both these down to earth. Time is one. The unsustainable can only be sustained, temporarily, at ever increasing costs. The other is us simply no longer accepting the government narrative without question.

We need do nothing except be patient. Both banks and government will collapse. The cost will be devastating. The struggling Greeks don't get much media attention. Neither do the Spanish who are also enduring difficulties. That the government's narratives are so divorced from reality really proves just how strong our core beliefs truly are.

Well done for reading this blog and (hopefully) shedding some light on your own key beliefs.

Try not to get caught up in wondering whether or not 911 happened according to the government narrative or whether the moon landings were staged. Just question one thing, how can something be too big to fail and what are the costs involved in sustaining the unsustainable? (They are unimaginably horrific. Which means that our current outsized governments are not part of any civilisation, they merely delay it.)

Let me give you a truthful core belief. You can use this as a lens to view the world. It will make understanding the world far easier. If you accept it as true.

The government allows banks to counterfeit currency with the unspoken / unwritten agreement that the banks never refuse a government request for a loan or ever demand repayment of principal.

Take a moment. You need to feel the above truth in your bones. Intellectually, you may wish to do a great deal of research to determine whether or not you can understand the depth and importance of my statement.

You take your time. Four months or four years. Four minutes or four seconds. Once you feel it in your bones, the world changes.

Governments bailed out the banks in 2007 otherwise society, as we know it, would have collapsed. Governments just re-allocate our wealth. Banks create pretend wealth in order to skim our real wealth.

Now you know the truth of it.

P.S. I have written a short book, you may know people who would benefit from understanding it. Simply reading it is easy enough. Unlike this blog.

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Mindfulness-Self-Trilogy-Book-ebook/dp/B06VXG8F3T/ref=sr_1_2?s=digital-text&ie=UTF8&qid=1487491626&sr=1-2&keywords=Mindfulness+of+self

Or google amazon mindfulness of self David Watkinson

This book will be available for free, on Amazon, on 30th March 2017, pacific time

28 February, 2017

Mindfulness of Self

Hi Gang, I have written a short ebook on mindfulness of Self. For those who want to know how a mixture of new age spiritualism melds with the cold hard logic of critical thought, read on.

I have raged at banks and government, bankers and politicians. That, is not cold hard logic. That is a loss of emotional control. Which is not a problem or a fault, simply a fact. Cold logic and hot emotion do not meld together.

My ebook explains that the hot emotion comes from the ancient part of your brain that connects directly to your endocrine system. In other words, your hormones.

My ebook suggests several things that you can practice that will enable you to increase awareness of yourself and remain cool, calm and collected.

Remaining calm, in the face of extreme stupidity from billionaires and world leaders will dramatically improve your analytical and decision making abilities. That should be self evident.

Now, let me give you an example from this morning. Billionaire burger muncher and Coca-Cola drinker Warren Buffet spoke about why he had bought a vast amount of Apple shares. Now, this is where you don't want any emotional response whatsoever. You might love Apple products and hate Warren Buffet. Fine. However, financially speaking, you just want to know why.

Buffet said he bought the shares because Apple products are blah blah blah. Utter nonsense. Cold, hard logic suggests he bought them because central banks buy them and they have an infinite amount of central bank funds. Warren Buffet is making a bet that they will continue to buy.

FANG - Facebook, Apple, Netflix and Google. These are interesting companies and Warren has picked the only one with a physical product.

That analysis took me less than a minute and I actually laughed at Warren Buffets 'reason'.

I am following the practices in my ebook too. This morning my car stopped working on my commute into work. I let it coast to the side of the road. Got out. Locked it. Stuck my thumb out for a lift. Four motorists were busy looking elsewhere and the fifth one gave me a lift. I doubt he would have done so, if I wasn't cool, calm and collected.

At work, I mentioned the car and that I was likely to be coming to work on my motorbike. At which point, one person offered to collect me. Would he have done that had I been stomping round the office in a dark mood? No. He also gave me a lift home. This has increased his commute from forty minutes to two hours. John, you are my hero.

Understanding my ebook just helps with life. It just does.

It is free for the next few hours, then free again on the 30 March 2017

I don't believe anything I just wrote. It all happened. My car is where I left it twelve hours ago, abandoned and non functional.

My day was relaxed but busy. My mood never dipped below happy. One colleague did not believe my car had broken down because I was too cheerful.

Do yourself a large favour, believe this post and read the book, carefully.

It is only a few dollars, even at full price.

You take care, as will I

17 February, 2017

Monthly Musing

I have mentioned my fear of World War III. This is due, mainly, to growing up in the eighties and my govt delighting in scaring me with nuclear horror stories. I say govt because this happened at a state school.

Now, for the few to control the many, the many must be managed. We must all be homogenized as much as possible. So that when authority speaks, we all listen with the same ears. This is called 'the narrative'. A carefully constructed story that reinforces core beliefs and gives us the story that furthers govt control.

I could give examples but these would go against you core beliefs. How about Hiroshima and Nagasaki? We all know that the utter destruction of these two (civilian) cities by nuclear weapons ended WWII. So, what was the narrative here? Easy, the nuclear power and dominance of the United States. The actual facts hardly matter. Our core beliefs in western dominance and power and my fear of global nuclear war are far more important than the truth. These nuclear bombs were fairly weak. Embarrassingly weak. We have been led to believe otherwise. Does it matter?

Yes it does. Our governments lie to us about the very big things all the time. The narrative is what binds us all together. Without the narrative govt would collapse.

Now the narrative tells us that govt collapse is the end of society, as we know it.      

I suggest that this is the core belief that govt wants us to believe more than anything. What if govt collapse, to say 2-3% of its current size is not the collapse of society but the start of a new civilisation?

What else do governments tell us that doesn't remotely fit in with the facts?

Margaret Thatcher once covered up a paedophile ring with the softly spoken words, 'if the people knew, then it would bring down government.'

Winston Churchill said, 'the only thing harder than getting Hitler into a war was getting him to stay in it.'

Mr Ford, builder of the black model T said, 'if the people all suddenly understood finance this weekend, no bank would survive Monday morning.'

A UK central banker once said, 'if the people understood banking, I would no longer be a rich man. That would probably be a good thing.'

Now, I really am on dangerous ground here. Not from govt or the intelligence services but from you. I am attacking your core beliefs and some of you are not actually critical thinkers. You will feel like I am attacking you and calling you an idiot. Calling your dad an idiot and your grandfather an idiot. No, I am not. I am simply pointing out that you have been carefully managed for generations.

Obviously, critical thinkers will just have a think and do some research and think some more. I am irrelevant. Just a source of interesting thoughts and ideas.

The current narrative is that the Islamic people are out to destroy us. Russia is out to destroy us. China are being held in reserve but will be thrown in with Russia at some stage. Probably the stage where our fraudulent financial house of cards collapse starts causing real pain and a sudden decrease in living standards. All synthesized by the structural defects in our so called civilised society of banking and government.

How do I know all this? I don't, I understand all this. I am a reasonably rare non-linear learner, have a deep but general awareness and high intelligence. I am both naturally curious and analytical. I also have defects but these just reinforce my other abilities, in terms of understanding the world. (My biggest flaw is excessive modesty.)

Am I unique? We all are.

You deserve better. You deserve to live in an actual civilisation. Yet these monkey brained barbarians won't allow it. We out number them by at least fifty to one!

These monkey brained few can only attempt to control society. They cannot improve it. Yet society does continue to advance despite all the wealth and power that they wield in an attempt to prevent change that reduces their control over the rest of us.

Please remember, monkey brained does not refer to intelligence but the innate need to dominate and control others. For example, Janet Yellen is Queen of the monkey brained and she is 'probably' highly intelligent and will consider herself to be highly civilised. Which she is. In this monkey brained themed civilisation we all suffer under, even her.

More nonsense next month.

For those who wish to develop their own awareness, understand more of our monkey brained nature, I intend writing three short 'self help' books, aimed at the masses.
Check out the supporting blog for details and updates. mindfulbeings.blogspot.co.uk

20 January, 2017

Monthly Musing

Perhaps I ought to explain why the status quo is so objectionable.

There are many reasons. The first, using a key trigger word, is sustainability. The world we westerners live in is unsustainable. Ever increasing debt is absolutely necessary for the status quo. It is also absolutely unsustainable.

Government growing ever larger is also unsustainable. Yet that is what we have had for at least a century.

Ever increasing house prices and financial assets are also unsustainable. Yet, we have 'enjoyed' this state of affairs for decades.

I suppose, house prices can continue to rise as long as interest rates continue to fall. Under such circumstances, a zero percent interest rate is not a boundary. Merely a point to pass through as interest rates continue downwards.

That is the paradox of our western civilization. For things to remain the same, certain things have to continue to change. So no rise in interest rates despite central banker blathering to the contrary.

Is this sustainable? No. America pays much the same in interest payments each year. The status quo requires the debt to continually grow, so it does. The status quo cannot afford increasing interest rates, so they fall.

Politicians blather on about productivity gains. Again, these gains are also required for the status quo to continue.

Those wishing I would be quiet and want everything to carry on without change are missing the point entirely. Ever increasing debt and productivity are essential in maintaining this state of 'no change'.

In the last fifty years, productivity gains have come from women entering the work force and more recently ever more powerful and affordable computer power. Not to mention ever increasing supplies of oil. How can these productivity gains be expected to continue forever?

I read an article that said we needed to find a new oil field every eight years the size of Saudi Arabia's biggest oil field. To keep the 'game' going. Well we haven't which may be why fracking is so heavily funded despite the lack of profit.

That is my answer as to why can't things just carry on.

There is no need to do anything. The unsustainable, eventually, can no longer continue.

The biggest 'promise' our governments make is about our retirement. Apparently, they promised me that I could retire at 65. Now it is 67. In Germany, the people are a little upset too. They were told that they could retire at 62 and now 67 is also their new number. The status quo needs this number to increase to around 80.

The status quo is heavily reliant upon its parasitic financial system. This needs a continuously more productive private sector and a public sector to continually grow its debts or the financial system just collapses. Slowly at first.

Those are a few reasons for my objection to the status quo. I feel that they are quite big issues. I am not suggesting any politician has ever lied about our collective pensions but the underlying assumption of ever increasing productivity has failed and with it our collective pensions. Or at least, the age of pension entitlement will need to rise further and faster.

The pension industry needs returns of about eight percent, forever, to meet its financial obligations. As interest rates must continue downwards, this eight percent becomes increasingly riskier to achieve. If not, actually, impossible. That little paragraph should have you smash whatever device you are reading this on. (I hope someone who loves you has given you a printed copy.) I have just explained that the pension you covet is actually worth nothing. NOTHING. Currently, it is worth something, HOPEFULLY.

At this point, should you be happy that all of the above is a reasonable view of the world, I feel obligated to give you some financial advice that would be worth its weight in gold. I suspect that would be illegal. Illegal is Latin for 'whatever those in power say you can and can't do'. Well, I cannot offer you a silver bullet to protect against whatever collapses first. Not legally. I can only ask you to seek out whatever treasures you truly value. The treasure with true value. I mean of course, your neighbours, friends and family. Somethings really are as good as gold and as shiny as silver.

Perhaps I ought to write a piece on subliminal manipulation. For examples read a newspaper or watch the news.

The trouble with sustaining the unsustainable is that when it can no longer be sustained then we get severe and abrupt changes that will impact heavily upon all of us. Even me.

For the hard of understanding, we are basically slaves on a Roman ship that is sinking. The reason for it sinking and getting increasingly difficult to pull on the oars is that we are not rowing hard enough. Well, that is the government's version of the truth. One that the boomers agree with. Why the millenials are happy to row is beyond me. The only thing that puzzles me more is my own involvement. (Rowing whilst screaming the ship is sinking.) So, are we set to row until we drown? Are there no human beings capable of imagining something different?

My view is that we stop rowing, dismantle the ship and build lots of new ones in a range of sizes and designs. Then we must be forever careful about who we choose to captain the vessels. No doubt, we will eventually be swayed by an enigmatic captain in a huge boat that he says is unsinkable. The boat will be as cheaply made as possible and already taking onboard water but not enough to worry about, yet.

You all take care and look after each other

P.S. A great many baby boomers will really struggle with the concept of nearly all of their pension being worthless. They will also struggle with the reality of heating their homes and feeding themselves but not yet, HOPEFULLY. I do write these things well in advance of publication.

07 January, 2017

UK inflation expectations 2017

I recently had the pleasure of talking to someone who admitted he wasn't a financial expert but he had maintained an active interest in the financial field for decades. Particularly in regards to mortgage payments, house prices, interest rates and inflation. Well, these were the things we discussed.

I learnt a great many things, most of which reinforced my view. I was also lucky enough to discuss a few things where I was plain wrong.

However, one thing really disturbed me. He expected interest rates to slowly normalize and inflation to increase. His interest rate opinion is as valid as anyone's. His inflation expectations simply shocked me.

This morning, I spent ten minutes with Google and found the following paragraph.

The Bank now expects inflation to hit 2.7% next year, up from the current rate of 1%.
It also raised its forecast for economic growth next year to 1.4% from 0.8%, but cut expectations for 2018 to 1.5% from 1.8%.
An interest rate cut this year was no longer an option, the Bank indicated.
From
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37860880 
A quick scan of the text and I feel confident that Mark Carney has everything under control, the BBC Business people are not concerned, so why should anyone worry?

Well, let's look closer at the numbers and try to actually understand them.
The words state, 'increased economic growth' which sounds very reassuring. A point I will come back to later. So 1.4% growth and 2.7% inflation. Which means nothing to me. However, if we subtract 1.4 from both numbers we get zero economic growth and 1.3% inflation. Hmmm. Zero economic growth is far too easy to imagine. No pay increase and you spend exactly the same this year as last year. If we change 1.4% inflation to 2% then that number feels easier to grasp than 1.4%.
I believe the numbers can now be easily understood.
Zero economic growth means that, for example, if you spent £100 on chocolate bars last year, you will spend £100 this year too.
2% inflation means that last year you may have bought 100 chocolate bars, this year you will only get 98, unless you spend a little bit more.
Has the first penny dropped? If economic growth rises a little bit (1.4%) but inflation rises a little bit more (2.7%), you get less.
Mark Carney has said this publicly and the BBC has published his words exactly. None of the BBC Business editors or Mark Carney care that this year you will have (2.7 - 1.4 = 1.3) on average just over one chocolate bar less.
Now, this may or may not concern you. It clearly hasn't bothered the BBC or The Bank of England. It isn't just chocolate bars it is everything. Less food, less heating, less petrol, less, less, less. This is a decline, a small one, in the average standard of living, on average, for everybody.

Well, what a silly little society we live in. All the technology and science and we are worse off. Anyway. Let us do second order analysis. In other words, think a little deeper.

Let us make two assumptions. The figures turn out to be accurate, which is a point I will return to. The trend continues for eight years.
A 1.3%s decline in our standard of living for eight years will mean that in eight years time we will not be enjoying 100 chocolate bars each year. We will be happy to accept 90 bars of chocolate.
Should the decline in our standards of living be 2% a year, rather than 1.4%, then get ready to relish 85 bars of chocolate.

Are you still completely unconcerned? Mark Carney is. The BBC is. The BoE is.

The BBC article just re-stated the Bank of England's position. I gave it some critical thought. Then decided to do some more critical thought. Then decided to share the results of my first and second order analysis with both of my readers.

There is a third level analysis. This is one where you realise that a simple reassuring statement from the Bank of England is, in fact, a statement of war. The masters of our currency are quite simply stating you will be getting less and less every year from now. The blame is entirely with the currency masters. However, the currency masters are openly blaming technology in general and robots specifically.

I can understand this and so can you. Mark Carney does. Either way Mark will be eating however many chocolate bars he wants and he expects us to gladly work however hard is necessary to provide him with all his material needs. In return, we get less and less every year. He even publishes the information for all to see. I am an arrogant prick and he is a world class arrogant prick.

You all take care and enjoy whatever you have. In eight years time you will have at least ten percent less.

Fun fact, the Romans call a ten percent loss a decimation. 
The article mentions 4% inflation. After eight years of zero economic growth, your chocolate bar ration would fall to 72 bars. Or, should you insist on consuming 100 bars, your costs rise from £100 to £150
That is what this society has in store for you. Less and less every year. For your children? Far less.
When did this 'less and less' trend start?
This 'less and less' trend is a feature of our currency system. The financial system takes more and more each year. However, science and technology helps us to produce more and more each year. The Bank of England then takes whatever it thinks it can get away with. Currently, the Bank of England is clearly communicating that it will be able to take at least ten percent more from us in just eight years time. This doesn't include all the extra production that the robots will be doing.

So, forget about inflation expectations. What do you think your chocolate bar ration will be in eight years time? How many of us are prepared to accept less than 100?

The top business and financial people don't expect you to be worried about receiving 90 bars of chocolate.
Advances in science, technology and robots could get the chocolate bar ration up to 110 bars easily.

I think we all know where the missing twenty bars of chocolate will be ending up in eight years time. Government waste, CEO salaries and banker bail outs and bonuses.

This is your society. I believe we can do so much better, far more easily.

You all take care of yourselves and each other. The masters of our currency certainly won't.

Just a quick but incredibly revolutionary thought. How much is our currency masters currency worth if we refuse to use it? (NOTHING)
Alternatives to currency are readily available. Physical currency can be replaced with physical silver. Wealth stored in pensions could necessarily stored in physical gold. Electronic currency can be replaced with Bit Coin or similar.

In fact, a human civilisation does not require Bank issued currency. Such a civilisation has a wealth of options.
Only our society needs currency. It is a means of taking wealth (chocolate bars) from the many to the benefit of a few.
However, this isn't what we are told about a society. We are repeatedly told that we all have to make sacrifices (pay taxes) for the benefit of us all.
These are the same people who have blamed immigrants and are now blaming robots for the continued erosion of our collective standards of living.
We are being lied to on a global scale. Outlets which attempt to voiceless concerns are labelled as fake news or Putin's puppets.

I have noticed that I am beginning to rant so I will choose to do something else. If you all want to live in a society rather than a civilisation, then so be it. You have my fondest regards and best wishes for your own and your children's futures.